Colts Receiver Hierarchy: Who Will Be the Colts’ Alpha WR in 2025?

As the Indianapolis Colts gear up for the 2025 season, one pressing question is who will emerge as the team’s top wide receiver — the so-called “alpha” of the corps. Veteran Michael Pittman Jr. has long been Indy’s most reliable target, but young players Josh Downs and Alec Pierce broke out last year, and rookie Adonai Mitchell flashed tantalizing upside. As NFL.com notes, GM Chris Ballard has built “a solid receiver corps featuring a productive, underrated veteran in Pittman and young players who are still developing”nfl.com. Each brings distinct skills, making the WR race wide open.

Michael Pittman Jr.: The Veteran Anchor

By experience and pedigree, Pittman remains the anchor of this group. A second-round pick in 2020, he has become a dependable possession receiver. He’s one of only four Colts ever to reach 100 catches and 1,000 yards in a season. In 2024 Pittman battled back and calf injuries but still caught 69 passes for 808 yards (11.7 avg) and three touchdowns in 16 games. He led the team in first downs (35) and excelled at contested catches, regularly making the tough grabs. As teammate Josh Downs put it, “Everybody knows [Pittman] is an excellent player”, praising his impact and shining a light on the equity that Pittman holds in the locker room.

Pittman’s savvy and consistency make him the default go-to. That said, there are caution flags: his 2024 numbers weren’t eye-popping, and he’ll carry a large cap number in 2026. The Colts have clearly stated that no role is guaranteed. If Pittman stays healthy and productive in 2025, he’ll start the season as the nominal WR1. But he’ll have to continue proving it on the field.

Josh Downs: The Rising Star

Second-year receiver Josh Downs has made a strong case for co-alpha status. After breaking Indy’s rookie catch record (68) in 2023, Downs took a big step forward in Year Two. He caught 72 passes for 803 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2024 — nearly matching Pittman’s yardage on a few more catches, and outscoring him in TDs. PFF noted Downs “quietly emerged as the Colts’ top receiving option in 2024”, leading the team with an 85.1 receiving grade and 2.20 yards per route run. Put simply, he thrived by turning short passes into chunk gains.

Once healthy, Downs’ impact became clear. After missing games with injuries, he returned in Week 4 and declared, “I’m back again,” immediately delivering an 82-yard, 1-TD game against Pittsburgh. His teammates praise his improved route-running and maturity. At just 23, Downs looks set to share or even challenge Pittman for top billing in 2025.

Alec Pierce: Boom-or-Bust Deep Threat

Alec Pierce brings a different dimension: pure big-play ability. In 2024 the second-year outside speedster racked up 824 yards and 7 touchdowns on only 37 catches, giving him an NFL-high 22.3 yards per reception. Every time Pierce got open downfield, it often led to an explosive gain. His yards per route run (1.82) was strong, reflecting his vertical threat. But that also meant Pierce wasn’t involved on as many plays. He finished with a 56.1% catch rate and just 3.2 yards after catch on each reception. His explosiveness was offset by occasional quiet games and some drops on simpler targets.

Put simply, Pierce is a classic boom-or-bust player. The upside is enormous — defenses must respect his deep threat — but he has to earn those big plays. The Colts want to see more consistency. He’s in the final year of his rookie deal, and analysts note he needs to prove he can be effective on shorter routes and “be an all-around receiver, rather than a one-trick pony”. If Pierce adds polish to go with his speed, he could certainly factor into the WR1 conversation. For now, he looks like a complementary threat — a weapon who opens things up even if he isn’t the default target every down.

Adonai Mitchell: The Wild Card

Rookie Adonai Mitchell remains the wildcard in this mix. The Colts gave him plenty of opportunities, and he flashed his playmaking tools: 23 catches for 312 yards (13.6 avg) in 2024colts.com, including some long gains after beating coverage. But there was a major caveat: Mitchell struggled to hold onto the ball. PFF noted that his 45.1% catch rate was second-worst in the NFL, and his 14.8% drop rate was among the league’s highest. In fact, he didn’t catch a single contested target all season. Simply put, all of his athletic talent was undermined by those hands issues.

Coaches clearly believe in Mitchell’s upside, but for now he looks like a work-in-progress. He’ll need a huge second-year leap to make a case for the WR1 job. If he can tighten up his technique and become reliable, he could raise the ceiling of this group. Until then, he’s more likely to be a situational/deep piece rather than the alpha.

Numbers Game

Looking at the stats, Pittman and Downs share the top of the leaderboard. Pittman’s 69 catches for 808 yards (11.7 avg) and 3 TDs in 2024 were basically matched by Downs’ 72 catches for 803 yards (11.2 avg) and 5 TDspro-football-reference.comnfl.com. Downs even led Pittman in touchdowns and first downs (40 to 35). Efficiency metrics favor Downs: his 2.20 yards per route run dwarfed Pittman’s 1.68pff.com. PFF gave Downs a receiving grade of 85.1 versus 72.6 for Pittman, reflecting his more explosive usage.

Pierce and Mitchell show bigger variance. Pierce’s 22.3-yard average catch boosts his value, but his lower catch rate means he’s not as consistent. Mitchell’s metrics were poor across the board, reflecting rookie growing pains. One analysis bluntly notes that Indy’s receiver room “lacks an ‘alpha dog’ WR1” despite its depth. In practical terms, the Colts will rely on multiple targets. Right now, the numbers reinforce that Pittman and Downs have been the most reliable producers, with Pierce and Mitchell playing supporting roles.

To further analyze who the Colts premier recieving threat was, I leveraged PFF's database, comparing the four aformentioned receivers across 12 separate statistics. The table below shows the chose categories along with each players performance in said categories.

Following the collection of this data, I went on to analyze the z-score for each player in each category. A z-score, also known as a standard score, is a statistical measurement that describes a data point's relationship to the mean of a group of data points. Specifically, it indicates how many standard deviations a data point is away from the mean. Z-scores show a more acurate depiction of performance, as opposed to simply ranking them. Once I had the z-scores by category, I averaged them out to see who the highest performers were. Analyzing other data or using other frameworks may lead to a different conclusion, but following this structure, the best Colts wide receivers are, in order, the following:

1. Josh Downs
2. Alec Pierce
3. Michael Pittman Jr.
4. Adonai Mitchell

Looking Ahead

Heading into 2025, Indianapolis will likely utilize all four weapons rather than focusing on one clear "alpha". Pittman’s veteran savvy will keep him involved on key downs, while Downs’ ascension guarantees he’ll be heavily featured. Pierce will continue to stretch the field, often opening things up for the others. Mitchell could contribute big plays if he improves his reliability. The quarterback situation (Anthony Richardson vs. Daniel Jones) could also tip the balance: a bullet-armed passer might lean on Pierce’s downfield ability, whereas a more conservative thrower would favor quick targets to Downs and Pittman.

If we had to pick an alpha today, most insiders would still cite Pittman and Downs as co-leaders. Pittman’s name recognition keeps him in the WR1 role by default, but Downs’ breakout ensures he’ll share the spotlight. The true WR1 title may not go to a single man this year; instead, the alpha role could flex week to week, depending on matchups and health. Regardless, Colts fans should expect both the veteran and the rising star to command plenty of attention — after all, both have proven they deserve it.